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Prediction: The flying car
This one was predicted so long ago that I think most people are skeptical that it will every happen. I think it will, and here's how:
  | One of the precursors of the flying car will be automated ATC: Computer systems that track aircraft in a given area and send electronic commands to choreograph their movements. I predict that there will be a day when we look back to when people were responsible for choreographing all of these movements and we're dumbfounded that such a system could work. |
  | Once automated ATC is in place, you will start to see aircraft with more sophisticated auto-pilot systems, culminating in a Cesna-class aircraft that can takeoff, cruise, descend, and land by following a pre-programmed flight plan. |
  | Once automated aircraft are proven to be a reliable/robust technology, people will be permitted to use them without as much training as is required today. And then it's just a matter of cost reduction before the middle-class person wants to own one. |
  | In terms of public infrastructure, the big question is whether or not vertical takeoffs and landings are the norm. I expect that they won't be the norm, but you never know. If they aren't, runways would be required, but it sort of defeats the purpose if you have to drive 15km just to get to the runway, so I predict that runways will become more and more numerous sort of analogous to onramps and offramps becoming more common for gaining access to freeways. Perhaps there would be a runway 5km from our house here, and so flying to Ottawa would mean driving 5k, extending the wings, and letting the computer do the rest: Take off, follow ATC's commands, and then land 5-10km from our destination. |
Put a date on it: I'll guess that by 2070 the technology to do this will be common place. Now... a big unknown for me is whether peak oil will push this off further, or whether we will have long adapted by then with solar etc. |
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