Something that I realized this year is that I like pondering the future -- looking way out and imagining how the world will be different, what things people will be doing, etc. This probably stems from my interest in technology.
Prediction: The flying carJanuary 13, 2009
This one was predicted so long ago that I think most people are skeptical that it will every happen. I think it will, and here's how:
  | One of the precursors of the flying car will be automated ATC: Computer systems that track aircraft in a given area and send electronic commands to choreograph their movements. I predict that there will be a day when we look back to when people were responsible for choreographing all of these movements and we're dumbfounded that such a system could work. |
| Once automated ATC is in place, you will start to see aircraft with more sophisticated auto-pilot systems, culminating in a Cesna-class aircraft that can takeoff, cruise, descend, and land by following a pre-programmed flight plan. |
| Once automated aircraft are proven to be a reliable/robust technology, people will be permitted to use them without as much training as is required today. And then it's just a matter of cost reduction before the middle-class person wants to own one. |
| In terms of public infrastructure, the big question is whether or not vertical takeoffs and landings are the norm. I expect that they won't be the norm, but you never know. If they aren't, runways would be required, but it sort of defeats the purpose if you have to drive 15km just to get to the runway, so I predict that runways will become more and more numerous sort of analogous to onramps and offramps becoming more common for gaining access to freeways. Perhaps there would be a runway 5km from our house here, and so flying to Ottawa would mean driving 5k, extending the wings, and letting the computer do the rest: Take off, follow ATC's commands, and then land 5-10km from our destination. |
Put a date on it: I'll guess that by 2070 the technology to do this will be common place. Now... a big unknown for me is whether peak oil will push this off further, or whether we will have long adapted by then with solar etc.
Prediction: Medical imaging / sensingJanuary 13, 2009
I expect that by the end of the 21st century, medical imaging and sensing instruments will make the MRIs of today look like the stone age. There's a lot of work to be done to get there, but the possibilities really are exciting, and I think if we could see the technology we'd be blown away.
Prediction: The browser as a dominant computing platformJanuary 12, 2009
This one is rocket science either, but I expect the next decade, ok, even the next two decades, will see the Internet/Web/Browser become a more and more dominant computing platform.
Part of this power will come from the "cloud", but part of it will come from browsers that allow powerful programming languages to be used to develop in-browser software that rivals desktop software for richness. Quite likely the distinction between these in-browser applications and desktop applications will become increasingly blurred. Want to use a word processor, spreadsheet, graphics program? Easy. Regardless of OS, fire up the program via the web without sacrificing much if any functionality, and have all of your data available to you via the cloud.
Google Chrome is starting to drive this process by introducing what I consider to be revolutionary JavaScript performance. But this is just the first step: Ultimately, the browser needs to allow a truly powerful language like C# to run at near-native speeds, and to be able to interact with the browser page in ways much simpler/richer than happens today.
Once this really comes to fruition, it will make our software so much easier to update, like it is today using a web app, but without sacrificing functionality, and our data will be anywhere and everywhere. What a great computing platform.
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